Led by Chief Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP is headed for an impressive hat-trick in Gujarat while the Congress is set to suffer a humiliating defeat. All surveys gave Modi a massive victory, even better than his 2007 tally of 117 in a House of 182 seats.
Exit polls carried out by ABP News-Nielsen predicted BJP to get 126 seats while Congress will get 50 seats, a drop of nine from their 59 in 2007. The newly formed GPP of the former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel will get only two seats while others may have four. But vote share for both the national parties are likely to drop. The BJP's vote share is predicted to be 45 per cent, down from 49 per cent in 2007 and Congress' share is expected to come down to 36 per cent from 38 per cent.
C-Voter for Times Now predicted 119 to 129 seats for BJP while Congress is projected to win between 49 and 59 seats out of the total 182 seats. The News 24 channel showed that BJP is likely to get 140 as the party is expected to get 46 per cent of the total vote share. The poll carried out by Chanakya for the channel projected Congress to get 40 seats, 19 short of 59 it won in 2007 polls.
Headlines Today projected BJP to get between 118 and 128 seats while Congress is likely to win in 50 to 56 seats with 37 per cent vote share. C-Voter predicted a vote share of 46 per cent for BJP against 37 per cent for Congress while Chanakya said BJP is likely to get 50 per cent vote share against 35 per cent of Congress.
In Himachal Pradesh, C-Voter predicted 30 to 38 seats for Congress while BJP is likely to get 27 to 35 seats in the 68-member Assembly. Chanakya predicted Congress to win in 40 seats in Himachal while they said BJP is likely to win in 23 seats.
The Headlines Today predicted that the BJP vote share will go down to 45 per cent from 49 per cent in 2007. The channel said that the Gujarat Parivartan Party likely to make inroads in Gujarat, but not enough to topple the Modi Government and Keshubhai Patel failed to garner Leuva Patel votes. While 24 per cent Leuva Patel votes could end up with the Congress, Keshubhai's party is projected to poll 22 per cent of Leuva Patel votes.
According to Headlines Today, 10 per cent Muslims voted for Narendra Modi and 86 per cent voted for
the Congress.
The BJP vote share in Saurashtra could be 42 per cent down from 48 per cent. Congress vote share could be down by 4 per cent from 37 to 33 per cent. The big picture in Saurashtra: BJP between 36-38, Congress 7-9, GPP 1-2. The Keshubhai factor did not work. He cut into Congress votes. The Headlines Today conducted the post-poll survey across 36 constituencies.
The post-poll survey conducted in Gujarat by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Week was restricted to just the first phase of polling which took place on December 13 in 87 seats out of the 182. The seat projection showed that BJP was far ahead with 53-63 in the first phase while the Congress will trail far behind with only 19-27 seats.
Even the vote percentage shows a similar pattern with the BJP set to garner 45 per cent, the Congress 33 per cent and others could get the remaining 22. Among the others former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) is likely to corner 12 per cent of the votes.
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